Evaluación del sistema de modelización MM5/MNEQA/CMAQ de la calidad del aire para pronosticar el ozono en Cataluña

pp. 11-23
DOI
10.3369/tethys.2010.7.02
Artículo completo
pdf

Autor

Estudiamos la capacidad de un sistema de modelización para pronosticar la formación y el transporte de ozono sobre Cataluña. Con esta finalidad, el modelo de la Comunidad de Calidad del Aire Multiescalar (CMAQ, de aquí en adelante las siglas se refieren a su versión en inglés, excepto indicación expresa) desarrollado por la Agencia de Protección del Medio Ambiente de los Estados Unidos (US EPA) y el sistema PSU/NCAR de modelización mesoescalar MM5 se asocian con un nuevo modelo de emisión, el Modelo de Emisión Numérico para la Calidad del Aire (MNEQA). Las salidas del sistema de modelización para el período que va de mayo a octubre de 2008 se comparan con las medidas de ozono de estaciones seleccionadas que pertenecen al Departament de Medi Ambient de la Generalitat de Catalunya. Los resultados indican un buen comportamiento del modelo a la hora de reproducir las concentraciones diurnas de ozono, mientras que los valores estadísticos están dentro de los marcos reguladores EPA y UE.

  • - Abdul-Wahab, S. A., Bakheit, C. S., y Al-Alawi, S. M., 2005: Principal component and multiple regression analysis in modelling of ground-level ozone and factors affecting its concentration, Environ Modell Softw, 20, 1263–1271, doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.09.001.
  • - Aguirre-Basurko, E., Ibarra-Berastegui, I., y Madariaga, I., 2006: Regression and multilayer perceptron-based models to forecast hourly O3 and NO2 levels in the Bilbao area, Environ Modell Softw, 21, 430–446.
  • - Appel, K. W., Gilliland, A. B., Sarwar, G., y Gilliam, R. C., 2007: Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 4.5: Sensitivities impacting model performance. Part I-Ozone, Atmos Environ, 41, 9603–9615.
  • - Brankov, E., Henry, R. F., Civerolo, K. L., Hao, W., Rao, S. T., Misra, P. K., Bloxam, R., y Reid, N., 2003: Assessing the effects of transboundary ozone pollution between Ontario, Canada and New York, USA, Environ Pollut, 123, 403–411, doi: 10.1016/S0269-7491(03)00017-4.
  • - Bravo, M., Mira, T., Soler, M. R., y Cuxart, J., 2008: Intercomparison and evaluation of MM5 and Meso-NH mesoscale models in the stable boundary layer, Bound-Layer Meteor, 128, 77–101, doi: 10.1007/s10546-008-9269-y.
  • - Byung, D. W. y Ching, J. K. S., 1999: Science algorithms of the EPA Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modelling System, u.S. EPA/600/R-99/030.
  • - Denby, B., Larssen, S., Guerreiro, C., Douros, J., Moussiopoulos, N., Fragkou, L., Gauss, M., Olesen, H., y Miranda, A. I., 2008: Guidance on the use of models for the European air quality directive, ETC/ACC Report.
  • - Dudhia, J., 1996: A multi-layer soil temperature model for MM5. Preprints, Sixth PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Users’ Workshop, NCAR, Boulder, CO, 49-50.
  • - Gangoiti, G., Millan, M., Salvador, R., y Mantilla, E., 2001: Longrange transport and re-circulation of pollutants in the western Mediterranean during the project Regional Cycles of Air Pollution in the West-central Mediterranean Area, Atmos Environ, 35, 6267–6276.
  • - Grell, G., 1993: Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations, Mon Weather Rev, 121, 764–787.
  • - Grell, G., Dodhia, J., y Stauffer, D., 1994: A Description of the Fifth Generation Penn State/ NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), NCAR. Tech. Note TN-398+STR, NCAR, Boulder, CO, 117 pp.
  • - Grossi, P., Thunis, P., Martilli, A., y Clappier, A., 2000: Effect of sea breeze on air pollution in the greater Athens area: Part II: Analysis of different Emissions Scenarios, J Appl Meteorol, 39, 563–575, doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<0563:EOSBOA>2.0.CO;2.
  • - Guderian, R., Tingey, D. T., y Rabe, R., 1985: Effects of photochemical oxidants on plants. Air Pollution by Photochemical Oxidants, Guderian R., Springer, Berlin, pp. 129-333.
  • - Hewit, C., Lucas, P., Wellburn, A., y Fall, R., 1990: Chemistry of ozone damage to plants, Chem Ind, 15, 478–481.
  • - Hogrefe, C., Rao, S. T., Kasibhatla, P., Kallos, G., Tremback, C. T., Hao,W., Sistla, G., Mathur, R., y McHenry, J., 2001: Evaluating the performance of regional-scale photochemical modelling systems: Part II- ozone predictions, Atmos Environ, 35, 4175–4188, doi: 10.1016/S1352-2310(01)00183-2.
  • - Hurley, P. J., Physick, W. L., y Luhar, A. K., 2005: TAPM: a practical approach to prognostic meteorological and air pollution modelling, Environ Modell Softw, 20, 737–752, doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.04.006.
  • - Jimenez, J., Baldasano, J. M., y Dabdub, D., 2003: Comparison of photochemical mechanisms for air quality modeling, Atmos Environ, 37, 4179–4194, doi: 10.1016/S1352-2310(03)00567-3.
  • - Jiménez, P., Jorba, O., Parra, R., y Baldasano, J. M., 2006a: Evaluation of MM5-EMICAT2000-CMAQ performance and sensitivity in complex terrain: High-resolution application to the Northeastern Iberian Peninsula, Atmos Environ, 40, 5056–5072, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.12.060.
  • - Jiménez, P., Lelieveld, J., y Baldasano, J. M., 2006b: Multiscale Modelling of air pollutants Dynamics in the North-Western Mediterranean Basin during a typical summertime episode, J Geophys Res, 111, D18 306.
  • - Jiménez, P., Jorba, O., Baldasano, J. M., y Gassó, S., 2008: The Use of a Modelling System as a Tool for Air Quality Management: Annual High-Resolution Simulations and Evaluation, Sci Total Environ, 390, 323–340, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2007.10.025.
  • - Mauzerall, D. L., Sultan, B., Kim, J., y Bradford, D., 2005: NOx emissions: variability in ozone production, resulting health damages and economic costs, Atmos Environ, 39, 2851–2866.
  • - Millan, M., Mantilla, E., Salvador, R., Carratala, A., Sainz, J. M., Alonso, L., Gangoiti, G., y Navazo, M., 2000: Ozone cycles in the western Mediterranean basin: Interpretation of monitoring data in complex coastal terrain, J Appl Meteorol, 39, 487–508, doi: 10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<0487:OCITWM>2.0.CO;2.
  • - Ortega, S., Soler, M. R., Alarcón, M., y Arasa, R., 2009: MNEQA: An emissions model for photochemical simulations, Atmos Environ, 43, 3670–3681, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.04.046.
  • - Parra, R., 2004: Desarrollo del modelo EMICAT2000 para la estimación de emisiones de contaminantes del aire en Cataluña y su uso en modelos de dispersión fotoquímica, PhD Dissertation, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Spain, phD Dissertation, http://www.tdx.cat/TDX-0803104-102139.
  • - San José, R., Stohl, A., Karatzas, K., Bohler, T., James, P., y Pérez, J. L., 2005: A modelling study of an extraordinary night time ozone episode over Madrid domain, Environ Modell Softw, 20, 587–593, doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.03.009.
  • - Schlink, U., Herbarth, O., Richter, M., Dorling, S., Nunnari, G., Gawley, G., y Pelikan, E., 2006: Statistical models to assess the health effects and to forecast ground level ozone, Environ Modell Softw, 21, 547–558, doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.12.002.
  • - Schultz, P., 1995: An explicit cloud physics parameterization for operacional numerical weather prediction, Mon Weather Rev, 123, 3331–3343.
  • - Schürmann, G. J., Algieri, A., Hedgecock, I. M., Manna, G., Pirrone, N., y Sprovieri, F., 2009: Modelling local and synoptic scale influences on ozone concentrations in a topographically complex region of Southern Italy, Atmos Environ, 43, 4424–4434, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.06.017.
  • - Seigneur, C., Pun, B., Pai, P., Louis, J. F., Solomon, P., Emery, C., Morris, R., Zahniser, M., Worsnop, D., Koutrakis, P., White, W., y Tombach, I., 2000: Guidance for the performance evaluation of three-dimensional air quality modeling systems for particulate matter and visibility, J Air Waste Manage Assoc, 50, 588–599.
  • - Serrano, E., Macias, A., y Castro, M., 1993: An improved direct method of rubber craking analysis for estimating 24-hour ozone levels, Atmos Environ, 27, 431–442.
  • - Silibello, C., Calori, G., Brusasca, G., Catenacci, G., y Finzi, G., 1998: Application of a photochemical grid model to Milan metropolitan area, Atmos Environ, 32, 2025–2038, doi: 10.1016/S1352-2310(97)00208-2.
  • - Sistla, G., Zhou, N., Hao, W., Ku, J. Y., y Rao, S. T., 1996: Effects of uncertainties in meteorological inputs of Urban Airshed Model predictions and ozone control strategies, Atmos Environ, 30, 2011–2025, doi: 10.1016/1352-2310(95)00268-5.
  • - Sitch, S., Cox, P. M., Collins, W. J., y Huntingford, C., 2007: Indirect Radiative Forcing of Climate Change through Ozone Effects on the Land-Carbon Sink, Nature, 448, 791–794, doi: 10.1038/nature06059.
  • - Sokhi, R. S., San José, R., Kitwiroon, N., Fragkou, E., Pérez, J. L., y Middleton, D. R., 2006: Prediction of ozone levels in London using the MM5-CMAQ modelling system, Environ Modell Softw, 21, 566–576, doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2004.07.016.
  • - Soler, M. R., Hinojosa, J., Bravo, M., Pino, D., y Vilà Guerau de Arellano, J., 2004: Analyzing the basic features of different complex terrain flows by means of a Doppler Sodar and a numerical model: Some implications to air pollution problems, Meteorol Atmos Phys, 85, 141–154, doi: 10.1007/s00703-003-0041-z.
  • - Troen, I. S. y Mahrt, L., 1986: A simple model of the atmospheric boundary layer; sensitivity to surface evaporation, Bound-Layer Meteor, 37, 129–148, doi: 10.1007/BF00122760 .
  • - US EPA, 1991: Guideline for Regulatory Application of the Urban Airshed Model, Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Technical Support Division, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, US, US EPA Report No. EPA-450/4-91-013.
  • - US EPA, 2005: Guidance on the use of models and other analyses in attainment demonstrations for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, US, US EPA Report No. EPA-454/R-05-002. October 2005, 128 pp.
  • - US EPA, 2007: Guidance of the use of models and other analysis for demonstrating attainment of air quality goals for ozone, PM2.5 and Regional haze, US Environmental protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, US, EPA-454/B-07-002.
  • - Vestreng, V., Rigler, E., Adams, M., Kindbom, K., Pacyna, J. M., Denier van der Gon, H., Reis, S., y Travnikov, O., 2006: Inventory review. Emission data reported to LRTAP and NEC Directive; Stage 1, 2, and 3 review; Evaluation of inventories of HMs and POPs.
  • - Yarwood, G., Roa, S., Yocke, M., y Whitten, G., 2005: Updates to the carbon bond chemical mechanism: CB05, final report to the US EPA, RT-0400675, http://www.camx.com.
  • - Zhang, Y., Liu, P., Pun, B., y Seigneur, C., 2006a: A Comprehensive Performance Evaluation of MM5-CMAQ for the Summer 1999 Southern Oxidants Study Episode, Part-I. Evaluation Protocols, Databases and Meteorological Predictions, Atmos Environ, 40, 4825–4838, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.12.043.
  • - Zhang, Y., Liu, P., Queen, A., Misenis, C., Pun, B., Seigneur, C., y Wu, S. Y., 2006b: A Comprehensive Performance Evaluation of MM5-CMAQ for the Summer 1999 Southern Oxidants Study Episode, Part-II.Gas and Aerosol Predictions, Atmos Environ, 40, 4839–4855, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.12.048.
  • - Zunckel, M., Koosailee, A., Yarwood, G., Maure, G., Venjonoka, K., van Tienhoven, A. M., y Otter, L., 2006: Modelled surface ozone over southern Africa during the Cross Border Air Pollution Impact Assessment Project, Environ Modell Softw, 21, 911–924, doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2005.04.004.

Revista publicada conjuntamente por:

Logotip Associació Catalana de Meteorologia

Logotip Universitat de les Illes Balears

     

Creative Commons License
Esta obra está bajo una licencia de Creative Commons.
Indexados en Scopus, Thomson-Reuters Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scientific Commons, Latindex, Google Scholar, DOAJ, ICYT (CSIC)
Financiado parcialmente por las Acciones Complementarias CGL2007-29820-E/CLI, CGL2008-02804-E/, CGL2009-07417-E y CGL2011-14046-E del Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación del Gobierno de España